Who is most responsible for the Iraq mess? Karl Rove is.
For those who see the war as a singular mistake, the question of responsibility looms large. Who or what was responsible? What systemic or other failure allowed this blunder to go forward and redefine the meaning of military error? How can future mistakes like the Iraq Invasion be prevented in future?
These questions will be of deep interest to future history professors. More importantly, these questions are critically important to today's foreign-policy debates.
Karl Rove is the single biggest reason for our predicament in Mesopotamia today. Let me explain how:
Rove's political strategy works by taking an emotional issue, taking a strong stand on it, and squeezing all straddle out of the issue. The Administration's stand on the Iraq war was no different. Its positions were staked out aggressively and all of the pulpit power of a wartime president was used to pressure the war's opponents, both principled and practical.
The result was predictable. First, public opponents of the war found themselves isolated by the tough rhetoric of the President, whose advisers whipped up fear with statements such as Condi Rice's now infamous Meet the Press whopper: "We don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud." Public opinion echoed the sentiments as this post from Shape of Days a mere week after Rice's comments shows:
There's no middle ground. There's no "maybe." We, the civilized peoples of the world, commit ourselves to the goal of wiping terrorism as a practice from the face of the earth in our generation. And you are either with us, or against us.
Real criticism was moved to the sidelines. In the media, doubters were relegated to back pages, while those who held their nose and printed lies spread by operators like Ahmad Chalabi made the ledes. No wonder the Iraq war had a healthy 72-25 advantage in a
| 3/22-23/03 | Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll. Rational discourse and expectations regarding the war became hard to come by.
But the “You're with us or against us” political strategy had a even more corrosive effect on the internal debate about the war and the post-war planning within the Bush Administration. James Fallows in his brilliant “Blind Into Baghdad” piece (sorry subscription only) in the Atlantic Monthly detailed how those who asserted that post-war planning should plan for every eventuality were dismissed as being against the war. The result was that post-war planning was largely ignored.
Thus, although Rove's strategy of picking an emotional issue, the defense of the United States, taking a strong position on that issue, and squeezing out all of the middle ground available worked wonders for generating political support for the war, it destroyed the kind of robust debate needed to present serious questions about the war's utility and wiped out the planning for the peace.
The next question to be asked is what to do if it happens again? With the White House rumbling about Syria and Iran, figuring out how to stop another train wreck becomes a priority.
The answer lies in old-fashioned, under-the-radar politics. Although open dissent is important, our current position is difficult because of lack of leadership offices at the federal level. Furthermore, anyone arguing against aggressive foreign policy moves being made against a foreign state risks political ruin because of appearing disloyal.
What is needed is a conduit to get to the Republican leaders in Washington. The way to reach them is through their most powerful constituency, Corporate America. There is no doubt that expanded war in the Middle East will hurt corporate bottom lines due to high oil prices, uncertainty, and the required runaway borrowing needed to finance more adventures.
The Democratic leadership must therefore approach the leaders of big American corporations and make a pitch for a more restrained foreign policy that is good for the economy. These leaders have real pull with the Republicans and can move forward a rational foreign policy agenda at a time when no rational answers seem to be forthcoming from the majority party.
Will it work? Only time will tell.