Apparently, our advance into Fallujah is appropriately named:

There has been less organized resistance than expected so far, said Lt. Col. Pete Newell with Task Force 22 of the 1st Infantry Division.

Military officials have said 3,000 to 5,000 insurgents may be inside the city, but they acknowledge many may have slipped away amid widespread reports that an offensive was coming.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have placed between 10,000 and 15,000 of our finest into this battle and apparently we will end up killing about 200 people by the end of it.  Looks like another stunning victory for George W. Bush.  

Update: Bullet Proof Vest Seized!

Update: Enemy Fighters long gone:

We believe most of the al-Zarqawi senior leadership has departed," one military source said.

Another reported:

“Our scout ships have reached Dantooine Fallujah. They found the remains of a Rebel base, but they estimate that it has been deserted for some time. They are now conducting an extensive search of the surrounding systems.”

The initial conventional wisdom on the election was that the Democrats lost because they did not reach out to so-called “values voters,” middle and working class people whose economic interests lied with the Democratic Party, but who agreed with the moral vision of the Republican Party.  No doubt some of these voters exist, but it seems that this story is being overplayed.

Indeed, as Andrew Sullivan pointed out yesterday, when the numbers are examined, it appears that “values”  played less of a role in this election than in past elections.  Seems shocking doesn't it?  Not really.

Indeed, if the election was lost on anything, it was that the Democratic Party's viewpoint on the war in Iraq couldn't be stomached by the majority of the American population.  The position of the party was that Iraq was the “wrong war,” that the American people had been deceived into believing that a war against Iraq was an integral part of the War on Terror. 

But accepting this position meant that Americans would have to accept two propositions which they simply could not take: (1) that the people of this country had accepted a blatant lie and happily marched off to war; (2) and that America was therefore, in some sense engaged in an unjust war.

Accepting the first position, that Americans had been duped into supporting the war was made harder because it was so obviously true.  Indeed, the fact that the WMD lie was obvious to all made the proposition harder to swallow.  No one wants to accept that they have been completely duped and should have know better.  Accepting Bush's obvious falsehoods was more psychically acceptable to the American public than accepting the idea that they had failed the basic test as citizens, and failed to hold their leaders accountable. 

Accepting the second position was even harder.  Everyone wants to believe that the U.S. is always on the side of good and is always working to help others.  Abu Ghraib made a great impression on the American psyche.  America was clearly the party doing wrong.  The leak of the memos didn't help either.  It made a moral case for something very wrong at the core of the American war effort, a case that was very bitter to swallow.

In essence, the Democratic Party's criticism of the War in Iraq forced people who supported the war against Saddam Hussein to accept that they in some way were morally responsible for a terrible error.  It was too much.

Indeed, the Democratic critique played right into the hands of the so-called “values voters.”  Republicans could easily point to the Democratic criticism of the war as another case of “liberals” forcing their values onto the vast ideological middle ground that is American politics.  “Liberal elites,” according to this view, were saying that Middle America was asleep at the wheel, that Middle America was wrong.  When looked at through the prism of the consistent views of far left of the Democratic Party, the idea had obvious traction.

Rove and company were in a great position, because, on this one issue, they were telling the truth.  The other side did think the war was wrong at its core--that the removal of Saddam was not morally right because of the means used to obtain the result.  That's a hard case to make, even if it is true. 

What is heartening about the situation is this:that the case attracted the votes of 48% of the voters.  That means that 48% of Americans could see that the war was wrong, that grave errors had been made in its prosecution, and that where America was going was a place that they did not want to be.  It means that American democracy is alive and well and that the war was the impediment to the election of a Democrat to the White House.

The Armed Forces are looking for a few good men.  Last week, the Army scoured paradise to track one down.  On Saturday, the Honolulu Advertiser reported the following:

David M. Miyasato enlisted in the U.S. Army Reserve in 1987, served three years of active duty during the first Gulf War and received an honorable discharge in 1991. He remained on inactive status for five more years, until 1996. Since then, the Kaua'i resident has married, started an auto window tinting business and this year, he and his wife had their first child.

But in September, Miyasato received a letter from the Army recalling him to active duty and directing him to report to a military facility in South Carolina on Tuesday.

"I was shocked," Miyasato said yesterday. "I never expected to see something like that after being out of the service for 13 years."

Miyasato is now suing the Secretary of the Army, asking a court to prevent the Army from ordering him to active duty. He is also asking for a court judgment declaring that he fulfilled all his obligations to the military.

Lest you think Miyasato’s plight was the result of an isolated computer error, think again.  For over a year the Army has been tapping 5,600 members of the "Individual Ready Reserves," military members who have been discharged from the Army, Army Reserve or the Army National Guard, but still have contractual obligations to the military.  Miyasato’s lawyer put it in plain terms: "My belief is that the Army is hard-pressed to recruit enough troops to send to Iraq and they're activating reserves as means to avoid implementing the draft.  I think problems will increase as more and more people are resistant to participating in the war."

Last week the Iron Mouth reported that the Selective Service System (SSS) was making its list and checking it twice.  The SSS is dipping into the Department of Education’s database, looking for a few good men and women between the ages 18 and 34.  Last year, the SSS drafted a memo to the Pentagon outlining plans to conscript medical personnel, linguists, and computer scientists under the age of 35.  The SSS is targeting young people with these specific skills to remedy the dearth of such people in the military.

In January of this year the Army began issuing “stop loss” orders to thousands of soldiers, thereby banning them from leaving the military even though they had fulfilled their obligations.  According to Loren Thompson, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, "The use of stop loss is often an indication of a shortfall of available personnel."  No kidding.  In addition, the Army is offering re-enlistment bonuses of up to $10,000 to soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait.  In a lousy job market, soldiers may have little choice but to re-enlist if they want to provide for their families.

Here’s a prediction.  The Bush Administration will quietly overhaul the federal financial aid system.  To round up the desperately needed medical personnel, the Administration could drain financial aid from nursing and medical students, while offering them a hefty GI bill.  Thus, the Administration could compel medical and nursing students from modest means to join the army in order to complete their training.

Folks, any way you slice it, we have a de facto draft.  The only question is how far the Pentagon will cast the dragnet.  This is the price of Bush's imperialism.  For now, all of us under 35 have reason to be concerned.  And for those of you who are fluent in Arabic, or who have medical training, or strong computer science skills, be afraid.  Be very afraid.

Shamelessly ripped off from Tony Pierce.  (Who doubtless stole it too.)

Bush doesn't understand bin Laden at all.  A New York Times article today detailed how Administration security aides discussed the pre-election tape from the terrorist kingpin.  The same tired old argument erupted between the President's national security team:

Some officials theorize that his message showed that Mr. bin Laden's network was so depleted that he could launch only a verbal assault at the United States. Others believe that the broadcast was a sign of Mr. bin Laden's confidence that his organization remained intact and capable of launching attacks at a time of its choosing.

But Bush just doesn't get it.  The tapes are bin Laden's attack on America.  The terrorist strikes are essentially a form of crude marketing, a way to get the attention of news stations and leaders.  America could not be defeated by a thousand 9/11's.  We are too large, too powerful and have too many determined people to be destroyed by terrorist attacks.

Bin Laden does not “hate freedom” as Bush would have it.  He hates the idea of American influence in the Middle East and will do anything to create an Islam free of all Western influence.

This is why Bush's Iraq strategy was such a failure.  Nothing could have increased bin Laden's stature and the power of the fundamentalists than an assault on an Arab country, even one as secular as Saddam's Iraq.   

The results are telling.  Iraq, previously under the control of an evil despot, had very few terrorists, hidden mostly in areas where U.S. planes prevented Saddam from ruling.  Now Iraq is filled with terrorists, both foreign and domestic.  The war in Iraq is creating terrorists, not reducing them. 

Wondering what will happen in the imminent attack on Fallujah?  Just ask Sun-Tzu, author of The Art of War:

When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.

When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull, and their ardor will be damped.  If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.

Get ready.  It's coming.  Let's hope our soldiers fight with more skill than the leaders who sent them there.

A story of a great Republic gone bad, of its leader, who preaches good, but deals evil, of troubled times marred by great conflict.  Sound familiar?  It's Episode III, Revenge of the Sith. (Quicktime)

Folks,

Two maps:

1) 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BREAKDOWN BY STATE (RED: BUSH, BLUE: KERRY):

2) THE U.S. BEFORE THE CIVIL WAR (RED: SLAVE STATES, BROWN: TERRITORIES OPEN TO SLAVERY, GREEN: FREE STATES AND TERRITORIES):

We can't stop you from screwing everything up.  Its up to you.

Tony Pierce has a plan for dealing with the crazy divide in this country:

let the states who dont want gay marriages to not have to perform them, but they must acknowledge them in the same way that they currently recognize marriages from other states, or even countries.

in return the blue states need allow the red majority up to two wars a year. as long as they come in under budget. yes there should be a war budget and those monies need to be collected before said war(s).

We need more Tonys.

This lovely tidbit showed up in the Los Angeles Times today, conviently two days after the election:

WASHINGTON — In the weeks after the fall of Baghdad, Iraqi looters loaded powerful explosives into pickup trucks and drove the material away from the Al Qaqaa ammunition site, according to a group of U.S. Army reservists and National Guardsmen who said they witnessed the looting.

The soldiers said about a dozen U.S. troops guarding the sprawling facility could not prevent the theft because they were outnumbered by looters. Soldiers with one unit — the 317th Support Center based in Wiesbaden, Germany — said they sent a message to commanders in Baghdad requesting help to secure the site but received no reply.

. . . .

"We were running from one side of the compound to the other side, trying to kick people out," said one senior noncommissioned officer who was at the site in late April 2003.

"On our last day there, there were at least 100 vehicles waiting at the site for us to leave" so looters could come in and take munitions.

"It was complete chaos. It was looting like L.A. during the Rodney King riots," another officer said.

. . . .

Some confusion came in late April 2003 when U.S. commanders in Baghdad reassigned military responsibility for the area surrounding Al Qaqaa from Army units to the 1st Marine Division, which had participated in the assault on Baghdad and eventually took control over much of southern Iraq.

According to Marine sources, when the 1st Marine Division took over, the combat unit didn't have enough troops to secure ammunition depots scattered across central and southern Iraq. The Al Qaqaa facility, they said, was of particular concern.

"That site was just abandoned by the 101st Airborne, and there was never a physical handoff by the 101st to the Marines. They just left," said a senior officer who worked in the top Marine command post in Iraq at the time. "We knew these sites were being looted, but there was nothing we could do about it."

During the same period, Marines came across another massive ammunition depot near the southern Iraqi town of Diwaniya, the senior officer said. They sent a message to the U.S. headquarters in Baghdad seeking guidance on how to keep the site from being plundered.

Commanders in Baghdad responded that the Marines should attempt to blow up the depot. The Marine officers responded that the site was too large to demolish.

Commanders in Baghdad "didn't have a good response to that," the officer said. "There was no plan to prevent these weapons from being used against us a year later."

I suppose this puts a damper on the spin by Larry Di Rita and company.

Not that it matters, since the election was decided by gay bashers.  Yet the story raises two important questions: One, how much negative news from Iraq actually will reach us? And two, how much more incompetence from the Bush Administration can our country withstand?

Wingnut Tele-evangelist Benny Hinn seeks a few good security goons. 

Here's their Equal Opportunity Employment Statement:

World Healing Center Church, also known as Benny Hinn Ministries, is a religious organization that does not discriminate against applicants for employment on the basis of race, age, sex, national origin, disability, veteran status, or marital status. We do discriminate on the basis of religion to the full extent permitted by law.

Some of the requriements are interesting too: 

Born again with a high level of commitment to the Lord Jesus Christ. Must have a valid California Driver’s License. Must be trained in the operation of all special protective equipment. Must have working knowledge of all phases of security. Must be willing to take direction and diligent in its execution. Agents must conduct themselves in a professional manner and apply biblical principles of work ethics, i.e., ‘do all things as unto the Lord’. Must be willing and able to become a member of ASIS and live to its code of conduct and abide by all aspects of Federal and Local laws.

I guess he's looking for someone to get all Biblical on your ass.

Didn't take them long.  One day after Kerry concedes, the Selective Service System publishes notice in the Federal Register that the Selective Service System is dipping into the Department of Education's databases for the names of students.  (Acrobat Required) Here comes the draft.

Addendum: This maneuver by the SSS is on point with its February 2003 memo to the Pentagon outlining plans for a draft.  Computer scientists, linguists, and medical professionals under 35, beware.

Update: Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) pulls out of Iraq because it is a catastrophic success.  Doctors and Medical Professionals: Uncle Sam needs you.

A quick programming note:  The Iron Mouth has always been about much more than politics.  Indeed, our first post detailed exactly what we were about, that is, everything:

politics, culture, religion, outsourcing, bail bondsmen, turncoats, anti-antidisestablishmentarianism, under use of punctuation, and others

The Iron Mouth continues to be about all of these things.  However, you may have noticed that politics were on our front burner during our first few months--this is to be expected.  But we are about much more than that--and plan to show you exactly what we mean.

The Iron Mouth Editors include published poets and playwrights, as well as lawyers, economists and former minor-league baseball players.  So don't be surprised to see some of our other sides soon.

Remember, we can always be reached at ironmouth@gmail.com.

The Democrats must change two things: Message and Method. 

Changing message does not mean that we have to change what we are saying, but how we are saying it.  Any party who cannot reach to the lowest common denominator is going to face a succession of failures in a democracy.  The party that can reach every person with its message and convince each person that it stands for a certain set of values will succeed.  We must be able to reach people at the most basic of human levels. 

Changing methods means a lot of things.  It means first and foremost, the formation of a local base, one that has impact in the community around it, one which addresses the needs of local people.  It also means having a permanent organization, something which we have lacked before.  It also means using best practices from organizational sciences to make sure that we have as efficient an organization as is humanly possible.  It also means drawing from our enemies--learning what they do right and then improving on it and changing it in ways that they cannot perceive. 

Finally both of these will involve considerable change in leadership.  Obviously the old way of doing things isn't working and those people who espouse those ways are going to have to move on.

Expect more on these issues in the weeks, months and years to come.  Right now we are in the wilderness.  Yet we are not alone.  Millions are with us and together we can effect the change we need to make this country great again.  But it will take work and continuous involvement.

Now comes the far right wing agenda.  Brace yourselves.

Bush will look America in the eyes and say otherwise - he's going to reach out, be a “uniter” not a divider, yada yada - but we know he's lying.  He lied in 2000.  He's lied for four years.  He'll lie again.

The silver lining is that Bush will push too far, and there will be a correction.  It will be painful before it happens, perhaps even tragic, but the correction will come.  Remember, America is still essentially a politically moderate country.  Our electorate is comprised mostly of centrists.  Bush and the GOP will use this election to validate a far right wing agenda, but they're very mistaken.  And when they push too far, we need to be ready to take our country back.

I thought it would happen this year, but apparently we haven't hit our breaking point yet.  Trust me, with this bunch in power, we will.  But we can't just sit around and complain about it.  We must take action now.  Mobilize.  Support candidates who appeal to the center, but have an ability to reach portions of our lost base.  Read Howard Dean's book, and improve upon his m.o. 

If you're religious, get involved in your place of worship; you'd be surprised how many, for example, devout Roman Catholics supported Kerry, but too many were overlooked.  And Bush grabbed them.

Find the loopholes in McCain-Feingold and exploit them.  Raise money for local candidates.  Get involved in local politics - many of our nation's future leaders start out as city and county officials. 

Know your enemy, copy him, and beat him at his own game.  Remember, politics is a tough business.  Sometimes you have to get your hands dirty.  Aim for virtue, stay true to your convictions, but embrace the dark side when necessary.  Martin Luther King was a beacon for peace, but there was always the simmering undercurrent of potential mayhem present in his demonstrations of civil disobedience.  If you convince your enemy that you may resort to underhanded tactics, if you make your enemy fear you, then you've won even when you play it straight.  Everyone was expecting a surprise from Karl Rove, but aside from the usual bullying and Jim Crow tactics, it never came.  Yet we feared him, and he won.

The impassioned comments in recent posts reveals a fighting spirit among us that we should all be proud of.  Moreover, I respect Senator Kerry's decision to stick it out to the very end.  But we have to face facts: it's all over but the shouting between the lawyers.

That being said, here are some things we must accomplish.

Number one, organization: I am speaking simply from my experience as a Kerry volunteer in Arizona, but I've a feeling my state was not atypical.  We were poorly organized.  We had great numbers this time - far surpassing the support Gore had in 2000.  But we did not use our strength in numbers efficiently and effectively.  The Karl Rove machine cleaned our clocks in the mobilization of voters.  If we're going to be successful, we should learn from our enemies.  We cannot function as a party of disjointed factions: the college kids, the hip hoppers, the various ethnic minority groups, the bloggers, the “527” groups like Move On, etc.  Jen and RW are so, so right: we must unite.  We must pull our resources together by coordinating these various support groups.  That's how we can achieve power - not power in the imperialistic sense, but political power.

Number two, recapture our base.  And by that I do not mean reaching out to ethnic minority voters, although we certainly need to work harder at that too.  Let's face it, black folks are the Democrats' most loyal supporters - just look at the election results and voter turnout in our Nation's Capital for the proof.  We must never take African-Americans and Hispanic voters for granted.  But they are there for us, and they always will be.  We need to continue to reach out to these loyal supporters, and they'll bring us home.

However, we've completely lost support from white, blue collar workers.  And there is no excuse for that.  How a President who is so far aligned with corporations and the wealthy could convince the legions of voters in America's heartland and God's Country that he's their man is absurd.  How the Democrats could lose support from the very people they claim to be fighting for is tragic.  And it isn't just the “Jesus” factor.  Reagan stole these voters from the Democrats without being a Christian crusader.  Clinton recaptured many of them in spite of his moral digressions.  But Clinton gave us a false sense of security that we still had the white, working class voter on board.  Examine the records of the Democrats' other recent candidates - Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry - and you come to the inevitable conclusion that the GOP has captured the base of FDR, Truman, and Johnson.

I knew Kerry was in big trouble when the “hot button” issue in the exit polls was “moral values.”  We're at war, there are few jobs, we're facing an imminent fiscal crisis, and we're just waiting to be attacked again, yet the plurality of the electorate is concerned about America's “morals.”  A futher signal that gay marriage is on more people's minds than the war on terror is the fact that voters in ten states elected to ban gay marriage.  Kerry was blindsided by this hot button issue.

Now we Democrats can disparage these voters and label them as bigots, ignoramuses, or religious fanatics.  Or we can do a better job at picking candidates who can reach out to these voters on some level.  I am not suggesting that the Democrats need a pro-life, born again Christian on their ticket.  Carter fit that bill, but he could not connect with white, blue collar America.  But candidates like Clinton and John Edwards did, because of their backgrounds, personalities, and communicative skills.  Clinton had his moral lapses, but he still managed to connect with much of the Bible Belt.  Another great example is Governor Warner in Virginia, a pro-choice Democrat who has enormously high approval ratings in a very conservative state.  These are the types of candidates we need to support if we're going to recapture our base.  We cannot rely upon upper middle class, educated, urban professionals alone to win a Presidential election.

Number three, do not give up hope.  Howard Dean changed politics forever.  Grassroots campaigns take time.  But we need to be poised and diligent if we're going to take back our Government in four years.

Update: Kerry concedes.

Obviously, last night was a big blow, especially considering that the early exit polls showed a commanding victory was coming our way.  So the next question is, naturally, what next?

I think it is pretty clear.  We live in a democratic republic whose health requires that its citizens fully participate.  Indeed, much of the problem on our side is that some of our key constituencies, although participating at a higher rate than before, did not come out the way we needed to to win. 

Logically, we need to explore ways to get these people to turn out for us.  We need them to understand how important it is that they participate in the political process and what they will lose if they do not.

Paradoxically, last night's results showed that we are a healthy, if extremely confused democracy.  Many people voted--an important sign of vitality.  Unfortunately, more of these people were from the other side.  Large numbers of those who should be with us on economic issues instead turn to the other party because of the need to feel righteous and because they feel a deep attraction to answers which are simple. 

A colleague's wife put it best: Education is what is needed.  I think this means both the school kind and the political kind.  We cannot stop now.  We must improve our schools in these areas so that people learn the critical thinking skills needed to start approaching the world's problems in a way which will lead to a more inclusive society, one which is not afraid to look straight at its problems and straight at itself in the mirror. 

But the political fight must continue.  That is the nature of democracy.  Many structures were built to facilitate the recent struggle, and they must not be abandoned.  We need to start fighting every election like it is a presidential election and every local battle in order to educate the people.

Indeed the forces which we oppose began as a result of a defeat even more crushing than the one we faced last night.  In his excellent book Before The Storm: Barry Goldwater And The Unmaking Of The American Consensus, Rick Perlstein chronicled how much of “movement conservatism” was born out of the crushing defeat of 1964, when Lyndon Johnson handed Goldwater the single most crushing defeat in presidential election history.

What must be remembered is that the defeat we suffered yesterday is nothing compared to the one Goldwater faced.  That means that our struggle will be much less difficult than that faced by our opponents when they started. 

So what are you waiting for? 

America's youth, where were you today? 

You missed your call to action.  Now do not complain when the GOP pushes forth an agenda that puts you behind the eight ball.

Scores of voters were turned away at a poll tonight at 36th Street and Broadway in Phoenix.  The voters were in line before the 7:00 p.m. closing time.  An elderly white man closed the doors to the poll promptly at 7:00, denying a large number of people the right to vote.  Under Arizona law, a voter must be permitted to vote if he is in line at his polling place before the scheduled closing time.  Many of the voters had waited in line for hours only to be turned away. 

The neighborhood is almost entirely comprised of African-Americans.

Lawyers for the Democratic Party are at the scene.  I pleaded with a number of Kerry campaign offices to offer my assistance, stating very clearly that I anticipated large numbers of minority voters to be turned away at the polls.  I reminded them of what happened in 2000 in St. Louis and Kansas City.  Each time, I was assured that they had it “under control” and that they'd rather I canvass or call people on the phones.  I am very angry and I feel very powerless.  I'm about to head down there myself. 

If this is happening in Phoenix, I'm sure it's happening all over.

At the close of polls, Ohio exit polling:

Kerry 52%
Bush  48%

Kerry Bush

PA 53   46
FL 51   49
NC 48   52
OH 51   49
MO 46   54
AR 47   53
MI 51   47
NM 50   49
LA 43   56
CO 48   51
AZ 45   55
MN 54   44
WI 52   47
IA 49   49

I just bought a $40 bottle of champange. 

When Drudge continues to run “Guam Goes For Bush” at the top of one of the columns hours after exit polls for the rest of the country are everywhere.

Again Wonkette:

From an email circulated by Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for KerryWisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4

Luntz is a GOP hack.  Bet the real numbers are better.

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5

ALSO: WI, as of 4:41PM, 51/48 KERRY

I bet she's getting this from NYT.

Halliburton down 3.24% today.  Continues to decline in after-market trading.

From myDD (Don't even go there, the servers are creaking under the strain)

Gore/Bush 2000 numbers in parentheses.  Obviously these are not good numbers for Bush.  Let's hope they hold up.

             KERRY        BUSH
Hispanics 46 (35)      53 (65)
Cubans    32 (17)      68 (82)

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

From Wonkette

Closer to reality, but still good.

        FL OH PA WI MN NV NM NC CO
Kerry 50 50 54  51  58  48  50 49 46
Bush  49 49 45  46 40  50  48  51 53

North Carolina?  Wow.  Wonder how long that will hold up.

Turnout Numbers

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts. 

Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

      K  B
AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

Call 1-866-MYVOTE1 or 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683).

Reports that turnout in Philadelphia is high, high, high.

George W. Bush: For November 2: You comfort others, especially this morning, and take the attitude that, no matter what, things will turn out fine. Your apparent acceptance creates comfort, strength and unity among friends and loved ones. Throughout the day, you can feel the future quickly approaching your front door. You anticipate change, travel or even moving, and feel at peace with the prospect. In fact, you begin to welcome the likelihood of change. Once you’re able to step outside of preconceived notions and expectations, you’re able to see the peace and beauty inherent in a new way of living.

John F. Kerry: For November 2: First thing this morning, you are made aware of a groundswell of activity that benefits you. This powerful locomotive is unstoppable and likely to outperform everyone’s expectations. Even so, you will experience moments of uncertainty from time to time – but not for long. The best information indicates that your momentum is irreversible. You feel very popular and beloved most of the day. Even another’s petty criticism is too limp to hit a bullseye. Enormous changes that you’ve hoped for – perhaps your own personal miracle – can occur.

Me: For November 2: Your hard work begins to pay off today. The blood, sweat and tears that have been wrung out of you during preceding days, weeks and months finally start to deliver impressive results and positive response. Compromises and adjustments are inevitable, and you’re encouraged to be flexible – especially since the ultimate payoff favors YOU. You may veer between feeling over the moon to feeling as if you’re lying on a bed of scalding hot rusty nails. Your nerves certainly get an intense workout today – sometimes to the point of numbness. Ultimately, you will come out ahead. Now stop biting your nails.

Based on the lines here in D.C. and what I've heard is happening around the country, Bush may just have another catastrophic success.

Not us.  Jake.

They know.  From this morning's Washington Post.

Despite the insistence that all was well, the erosion in the moods of Bush's inner circle over the past two weeks was unmistakable. Several of his close advisers said they were concerned because the president had achieved no last-minute momentum, and Democratic turnout was looking as if it might swamp the Bush-Cheney campaign's projections.

 Asked about the mood on the plane, a subdued McKinnon replied, in a deadpan voice: "Jubilation."

I'm hearing noise that Kerry might do much better in Virginia than anyone expected.

Update Tuesday 1:15 PM:  Zogby is now calling Virginia a tie.

Tomorrow is not yesterday.  There will be no deadlock in the Electoral College, no divergence between the winner of the popular vote and the Electoral College, no Kerry v. Bush before the Supreme Court, no repeat of 2000.  Senator John Kerry will win decisively because Americans need a President with a mandate.  If there is an election from the past that provides an analogy, then it isn’t 2000.  Tomorrow’s election is more likely to resemble the 1980 contest, when all the pre-election polls predicted a tight race, but the challenger beat the incumbent with a landslide.  Only this time, the Democrat will prevail.

Doubtless the media-crowned pundits will scratch their heads, trying to make sense of a decisive Kerry victory.  They’ll pin the election result on the war in Iraq, the economy, the Bush Administration’s failure to admit mistakes and trouble with the truth.  They’ll pin it on Osama, George Soros, the young people, the old people, the Hispanics, the Blacks, the smart people, the lawyers, the rich, the poor, the Christian Coalition that stayed home, GOTV, cellular phones, and the “Internets.”  They’ll pin it on everything, of course, except the point: John Kerry, the man.

John Kerry will win this election simply because he is a better man than Bush.

From the moment Kerry prevailed in the Democratic primaries, the Bush campaign set out to destroy him.  Mercenaries for the President - “527” organizations – came out of the woodwork and attacked Kerry’s record and persona.  These mendacious rogues took on new names, such as “Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth,” but they’re the usual suspects who brought down Governor Ann Richards, Senator John McCain, and Vice President Al Gore.  After the surrogates took their pot shots at Kerry, Bush et al gleefully joined in the orgy of character assassination.

Their relentless attacks painted a surreal image of a man.  Kerry was a fop.  He was an elitist effete, a “metrosexual” who sips Chablis in a smoking jacket while receiving a pedicure.  Kerry was a flip-flopper, indecisive, a political opportunist.  Kerry was a tax-and-spend liberal, Ted Kennedy without the charisma, a gold digger, a whipped husband, a wimp.  Kerry was a hippie war protester and Hanoi Jane Fonda was his paramour.  Kerry was French.  Kerry was weak.

In the end, the GOP unabashedly made Kerry a caricature.  They prepared Americans, most of whom knew nothing about Kerry, for the lowest of expectations.  But in doing so, they committed political suicide.  Because in the end, Kerry proved to America that he was none of the things the GOP accused him of being.  And Kerry appeared all the more stronger.

In the first debate, Kerry shattered the image that Bush had created.  By the third debate, Kerry had created a new image: that of a superior Commander in Chief.  While Bush stumbled out of the gates in the first debate, turned shrill in the second, and grinned like a drugged mental patient in the third, Kerry remained poised, confident, strong, and communicated clearly.  Moreover, Kerry saved his best performance for last.  In the third debate, Kerry took full advantage of the camera for the first time.  When he finally looked Americans directly into the eye and spoke plainly about where he would lead us, he convinced any of those who had doubts about him that he was presidential.

I was not surprised by Kerry’s performance.  But many of my friends grew impatient with him in the months leading up to the debates. “Why isn’t he answering Bush’s attacks?” they would ask, ever frustrated.  “Is he ever going to say something? Why did he go windsurfing?”  The conservative media had a field day.  Even liberals like ice queen Maureen Dowd criticized Kerry to no end.

I, however, remained confident.  I knew Kerry was saving it up for the stretch run.  He didn’t want to run out of money like Gore did.  He understood the importance of momentum leading into Election Day.  He also took advantage of the bad news for Bush, from sluggish job reports to Richard Clarke, from the Abu Ghraib scandal to the mess in Mesopotamia.  But most of all, I remained confident because I knew Kerry was a fighter. 

Kerry’s selection of John Edwards as his running mate wasn't just about geography, charisma, energy, and looks.  Kerry picked Edwards as his comrade-in-arms because Edwards shared Kerry’s fighting spirit.  And it is this spirit that the GOP, in Bushspeak, “misunderestimated.”  Before their careers in public service, Kerry and Edwards were both trial lawyers.  Much has been documented about Edwards’ success in the courtroom, but Kerry was a great trial lawyer in his own right.  After serving three years as a prosecutor in Boston, Kerry went into private practice for four more years, and he ran a very successful firm.  Kerry gained a reputation of being a skilled, prepared, diligent, smart, credible, ethical, and above all, tough attorney. 

It was this experience as a trial lawyer that prepared Kerry for his toughest contest.  Trial lawyers are pugilists at heart.  Those who have experienced life in the pits of our nation’s courtrooms are no sissies.  When you’ve stood on your feet before a temperamental judge, gone toe-to-toe with a sharp, zealous opponent, pleaded with a jury for redress, forgiveness, and justice, felt the fear of failure, when you’ve done this for several years as Kerry and Edwards did, no one can push you around.  Bush and Cheney, who are wont to blame lawyers for all of society’s ills, failed to understand this.  And in doing so, they failed to understand Kerry the man.  When the time was right, Kerry struck.  Bush could not counter Kerry’s assault.  And Americans sat as judges, giving point after point to Kerry.

It is sweet and fitting that Bush would be destroyed by the dark side of “imagengineering.”  After all, Bush ascended to the Presidency because of a carefully tailored image that Karl Rove and others sold to the American public.  Whether it was his impersonation of a Top Gun pilot or Texas rancher, Bush the image was molded after Marshal Kane, Gary Cooper’s hero of High Noon: Bush was a man of few words, but a man of action.  He had the virtues and mores that a preacher would envy.  Above all, he was a man of courage, gutsy enough to “go it alone” if necessary.  But after four years of incompetence, lies, and cover ups, Bush no longer resembled Marshal Kane, but Barney Fife.  However, Bush refused to admit his faults, because doing so would shatter his image – not only for his supporters, but for himself.  Bush was guilty of believing his own hype.  And he transferred this misguided faith in himself to an even more erroneous belief that Kerry was in fact the pathetic image he and his legions had created.

But Kerry the man proved to be better than Bush the image.

When Senator John Kerry is sworn in as our 44th President, he will lead our country with the same fighting spirit that carried him through this grueling campaign.  He will also lead us with the sound judgment, virtue, integrity, wisdom, and humbleness he has displayed down the stretch.  President Kerry will not be a manufactured image carefully created by a media-savvy sycophant, but a true life in being created by the man himself over 60 years of a distinguished life.  We are all the winners for it.