Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Kerry Bush

PA 53   46
FL 51   49
NC 48   52
OH 51   49
MO 46   54
AR 47   53
MI 51   47
NM 50   49
LA 43   56
CO 48   51
AZ 45   55
MN 54   44
WI 52   47
IA 49   49

I just bought a $40 bottle of champange. 

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 3:58:36 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

When Drudge continues to run “Guam Goes For Bush” at the top of one of the columns hours after exit polls for the rest of the country are everywhere.

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 2:50:11 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Again Wonkette:

From an email circulated by Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for KerryWisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4

Luntz is a GOP hack.  Bet the real numbers are better.

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 2:30:40 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

From our friends on the other side of the DMZ:
To: InvisibleChurch

I don't know what the hell the exit polls are telling, but Hannity sounds like somebody just shot his dog. . .not good.


6 posted on 11/02/2004 2:15:40 PM PST by FlipWilson
RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 2:19:34 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5

ALSO: WI, as of 4:41PM, 51/48 KERRY

I bet she's getting this from NYT.

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 2:12:26 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Halliburton down 3.24% today.  Continues to decline in after-market trading.

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 1:54:04 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

From myDD (Don't even go there, the servers are creaking under the strain)

Gore/Bush 2000 numbers in parentheses.  Obviously these are not good numbers for Bush.  Let's hope they hold up.

             KERRY        BUSH
Hispanics 46 (35)      53 (65)
Cubans    32 (17)      68 (82)

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 1:49:24 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

From Wonkette

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 1:32:12 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Closer to reality, but still good.

        FL OH PA WI MN NV NM NC CO
Kerry 50 50 54  51  58  48  50 49 46
Bush  49 49 45  46 40  50  48  51 53

North Carolina?  Wow.  Wonder how long that will hold up.

Turnout Numbers

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts. 

Michigan
- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

RW
Wednesday, November 03, 2004 1:28:04 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

      K  B
AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 11:48:37 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

Call 1-866-MYVOTE1 or 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683).

GH
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 10:24:22 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Reports that turnout in Philadelphia is high, high, high.

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 10:05:25 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

George W. Bush: For November 2: You comfort others, especially this morning, and take the attitude that, no matter what, things will turn out fine. Your apparent acceptance creates comfort, strength and unity among friends and loved ones. Throughout the day, you can feel the future quickly approaching your front door. You anticipate change, travel or even moving, and feel at peace with the prospect. In fact, you begin to welcome the likelihood of change. Once you’re able to step outside of preconceived notions and expectations, you’re able to see the peace and beauty inherent in a new way of living.

John F. Kerry: For November 2: First thing this morning, you are made aware of a groundswell of activity that benefits you. This powerful locomotive is unstoppable and likely to outperform everyone’s expectations. Even so, you will experience moments of uncertainty from time to time – but not for long. The best information indicates that your momentum is irreversible. You feel very popular and beloved most of the day. Even another’s petty criticism is too limp to hit a bullseye. Enormous changes that you’ve hoped for – perhaps your own personal miracle – can occur.

Me: For November 2: Your hard work begins to pay off today. The blood, sweat and tears that have been wrung out of you during preceding days, weeks and months finally start to deliver impressive results and positive response. Compromises and adjustments are inevitable, and you’re encouraged to be flexible – especially since the ultimate payoff favors YOU. You may veer between feeling over the moon to feeling as if you’re lying on a bed of scalding hot rusty nails. Your nerves certainly get an intense workout today – sometimes to the point of numbness. Ultimately, you will come out ahead. Now stop biting your nails.

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 8:02:18 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Based on the lines here in D.C. and what I've heard is happening around the country, Bush may just have another catastrophic success.

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 7:15:39 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [4]  |  Trackback

Not us.  Jake.

 

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 10:57:43 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

They know.  From this morning's Washington Post.

Despite the insistence that all was well, the erosion in the moods of Bush's inner circle over the past two weeks was unmistakable. Several of his close advisers said they were concerned because the president had achieved no last-minute momentum, and Democratic turnout was looking as if it might swamp the Bush-Cheney campaign's projections.

 Asked about the mood on the plane, a subdued McKinnon replied, in a deadpan voice: "Jubilation."

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 10:27:49 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

I'm hearing noise that Kerry might do much better in Virginia than anyone expected.

Update Tuesday 1:15 PM:  Zogby is now calling Virginia a tie.

RW
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 9:38:57 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [3]  |  Trackback

Tomorrow is not yesterday.  There will be no deadlock in the Electoral College, no divergence between the winner of the popular vote and the Electoral College, no Kerry v. Bush before the Supreme Court, no repeat of 2000.  Senator John Kerry will win decisively because Americans need a President with a mandate.  If there is an election from the past that provides an analogy, then it isn’t 2000.  Tomorrow’s election is more likely to resemble the 1980 contest, when all the pre-election polls predicted a tight race, but the challenger beat the incumbent with a landslide.  Only this time, the Democrat will prevail.

Doubtless the media-crowned pundits will scratch their heads, trying to make sense of a decisive Kerry victory.  They’ll pin the election result on the war in Iraq, the economy, the Bush Administration’s failure to admit mistakes and trouble with the truth.  They’ll pin it on Osama, George Soros, the young people, the old people, the Hispanics, the Blacks, the smart people, the lawyers, the rich, the poor, the Christian Coalition that stayed home, GOTV, cellular phones, and the “Internets.”  They’ll pin it on everything, of course, except the point: John Kerry, the man.

John Kerry will win this election simply because he is a better man than Bush.

From the moment Kerry prevailed in the Democratic primaries, the Bush campaign set out to destroy him.  Mercenaries for the President - “527” organizations – came out of the woodwork and attacked Kerry’s record and persona.  These mendacious rogues took on new names, such as “Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth,” but they’re the usual suspects who brought down Governor Ann Richards, Senator John McCain, and Vice President Al Gore.  After the surrogates took their pot shots at Kerry, Bush et al gleefully joined in the orgy of character assassination.

Their relentless attacks painted a surreal image of a man.  Kerry was a fop.  He was an elitist effete, a “metrosexual” who sips Chablis in a smoking jacket while receiving a pedicure.  Kerry was a flip-flopper, indecisive, a political opportunist.  Kerry was a tax-and-spend liberal, Ted Kennedy without the charisma, a gold digger, a whipped husband, a wimp.  Kerry was a hippie war protester and Hanoi Jane Fonda was his paramour.  Kerry was French.  Kerry was weak.

In the end, the GOP unabashedly made Kerry a caricature.  They prepared Americans, most of whom knew nothing about Kerry, for the lowest of expectations.  But in doing so, they committed political suicide.  Because in the end, Kerry proved to America that he was none of the things the GOP accused him of being.  And Kerry appeared all the more stronger.

In the first debate, Kerry shattered the image that Bush had created.  By the third debate, Kerry had created a new image: that of a superior Commander in Chief.  While Bush stumbled out of the gates in the first debate, turned shrill in the second, and grinned like a drugged mental patient in the third, Kerry remained poised, confident, strong, and communicated clearly.  Moreover, Kerry saved his best performance for last.  In the third debate, Kerry took full advantage of the camera for the first time.  When he finally looked Americans directly into the eye and spoke plainly about where he would lead us, he convinced any of those who had doubts about him that he was presidential.

I was not surprised by Kerry’s performance.  But many of my friends grew impatient with him in the months leading up to the debates. “Why isn’t he answering Bush’s attacks?” they would ask, ever frustrated.  “Is he ever going to say something? Why did he go windsurfing?”  The conservative media had a field day.  Even liberals like ice queen Maureen Dowd criticized Kerry to no end.

I, however, remained confident.  I knew Kerry was saving it up for the stretch run.  He didn’t want to run out of money like Gore did.  He understood the importance of momentum leading into Election Day.  He also took advantage of the bad news for Bush, from sluggish job reports to Richard Clarke, from the Abu Ghraib scandal to the mess in Mesopotamia.  But most of all, I remained confident because I knew Kerry was a fighter. 

Kerry’s selection of John Edwards as his running mate wasn't just about geography, charisma, energy, and looks.  Kerry picked Edwards as his comrade-in-arms because Edwards shared Kerry’s fighting spirit.  And it is this spirit that the GOP, in Bushspeak, “misunderestimated.”  Before their careers in public service, Kerry and Edwards were both trial lawyers.  Much has been documented about Edwards’ success in the courtroom, but Kerry was a great trial lawyer in his own right.  After serving three years as a prosecutor in Boston, Kerry went into private practice for four more years, and he ran a very successful firm.  Kerry gained a reputation of being a skilled, prepared, diligent, smart, credible, ethical, and above all, tough attorney. 

It was this experience as a trial lawyer that prepared Kerry for his toughest contest.  Trial lawyers are pugilists at heart.  Those who have experienced life in the pits of our nation’s courtrooms are no sissies.  When you’ve stood on your feet before a temperamental judge, gone toe-to-toe with a sharp, zealous opponent, pleaded with a jury for redress, forgiveness, and justice, felt the fear of failure, when you’ve done this for several years as Kerry and Edwards did, no one can push you around.  Bush and Cheney, who are wont to blame lawyers for all of society’s ills, failed to understand this.  And in doing so, they failed to understand Kerry the man.  When the time was right, Kerry struck.  Bush could not counter Kerry’s assault.  And Americans sat as judges, giving point after point to Kerry.

It is sweet and fitting that Bush would be destroyed by the dark side of “imagengineering.”  After all, Bush ascended to the Presidency because of a carefully tailored image that Karl Rove and others sold to the American public.  Whether it was his impersonation of a Top Gun pilot or Texas rancher, Bush the image was molded after Marshal Kane, Gary Cooper’s hero of High Noon: Bush was a man of few words, but a man of action.  He had the virtues and mores that a preacher would envy.  Above all, he was a man of courage, gutsy enough to “go it alone” if necessary.  But after four years of incompetence, lies, and cover ups, Bush no longer resembled Marshal Kane, but Barney Fife.  However, Bush refused to admit his faults, because doing so would shatter his image – not only for his supporters, but for himself.  Bush was guilty of believing his own hype.  And he transferred this misguided faith in himself to an even more erroneous belief that Kerry was in fact the pathetic image he and his legions had created.

But Kerry the man proved to be better than Bush the image.

When Senator John Kerry is sworn in as our 44th President, he will lead our country with the same fighting spirit that carried him through this grueling campaign.  He will also lead us with the sound judgment, virtue, integrity, wisdom, and humbleness he has displayed down the stretch.  President Kerry will not be a manufactured image carefully created by a media-savvy sycophant, but a true life in being created by the man himself over 60 years of a distinguished life.  We are all the winners for it.

GH
Tuesday, November 02, 2004 4:47:07 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [7]  |  Trackback
 Monday, November 01, 2004

This lays out our choice better than anything I have seen yet.

RW
Monday, November 01, 2004 9:35:06 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

The Iron Mouth gives its highest praise to the Honorable Susan Dlott, U.S. District Judge in Cincinnati.  At about 1:30 a.m. this morning, she issued an order that bars political party challengers from polling places throughout Ohio.  The judge ruled that an Ohio statute that permits political challengers in the polls is unconstitutional.  After a three-day hearing, Dlott concluded that the evidence “does not indicate that the presence of additional challengers would serve Ohio's interest in preventing voter fraud better than would the system of election judges.” 

Kerry in a landslide.

UPDATE 10:50 PM: U.S. District Judge John Adams made a similar ruling today from his court in Akron.  “In light of these extraordinary circumstances, and the contentious nature of the imminent election, the court cannot and must not turn a blind eye to the substantial likelihood that significant harm will result not only to voters, but also to the voting process itself, if appointed challengers are permitted at the polls," the judge ruled.

I wonder if the GOP will ask the goons they hired for their money back.

UPDATE ELECTION DAY: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit scored one for Jim Crow in overturning the rulings by Judges Admans and Dlott.  By a 2-1 margin the 6th Circuit ignored precedent, led by Reagan appointee and Ten Commandments advocate James Ryan and Bush 41 appointee and supporter of overturning Roe v. Wade John Rodgers.  No matter.  The Dems in Ohio have mobilized more poll watchers than the GOP.  And the Dems didn't have to pay them either.  According to the AP wire,

As voting got under way after 6:30 a.m., Democratic challenger Vicki Lynn Ward sat at the Addison Branch Library in Cleveland while early arriving voters punched their ballots. She said she was mainly waiting for a Republican challenger to show up.

"I'm just here to ensure that everyone's right to vote is protected — FROM unnecessary challenges," said Ward. She got the call at 2 a.m. that she would be allowed in the polling place.

Democratic challenger John Douglas said a presiding judge kicked him out of a church basement polling place in Cleveland. "She was screaming about police," he said.

But about 20 minutes later, Jacqueline Atkinson, another presiding judge at the precinct, told Douglas he could come back in.

"She can scream all she wants to," Atkinson told him. "Just stand by me. You have a right to be here."

KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE.

GH
Monday, November 01, 2004 8:42:12 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

I think Abe Lincoln explained it best on February 15, 1848:

Allow the President to invade a neighboring nation, whenever he shall deem it necessary to repel an invasion, and you allow him to do so, whenever he may choose to say he deems it necessary for such purpose--and you allow him to make war at pleasure.  Study to see if you can fix any limit to his power in this respect, after you have given him so much as you propose.  If, to-day, he should choose to say he thinks it necessary to invade Canada, to prevent the British from invading us, how could you stop him?  You may say to him, “I see no probability of the British invading us” but he will say to you “be silent; I see it if you dont.”

Time to get it done.

RW
Monday, November 01, 2004 6:33:16 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

Its starting to sink in over there.  They know they are in the deep stuff now.  We are mobilized, ready, and everywhere.  In 2000, the Gore national GOTV effort was comprised of 90,000.  Since Friday afternoon the Kerry GOTV effort in Ohio consists of 47,000 people

Pair this with a Gallup poll showing Bush trailing amongst Registered Voters, 48-46 and you get no joy in Freeperville.

A few examples:

To: RWR8189

This sucks big time. Gallup is a good poll. The MSM has scored hard with their last minute crap. Same s$$t as 2000. Now it's 2000 redux. It's all a matter of luck when it's this close. Luck and, unfortunately, lawyers. We lucked out four years ago. Hope it happens again. Not feeling very optimistic tonite. I guess this explains the long faces at headquarters today.


29 posted on 10/31/2004 6:44:31 PM PST by ModelBreaker
To: Perdogg

Honestly, I'm the less optimistic right now than I have been the whole campaign.

6 posted on 10/31/2004 6:38:20 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
But this is my personal favorite:
To: RWR8189
RV is tied, Likely is a 2 point lead for Bush. Also a weekend poll for the most part. Don't worry, we are cool, don't show weakness.
34 posted on 10/31/2004 6:46:26 PM PST by cmsgop ( Bong Hits, Fraggle Rock Reruns and DU is no way to go through Life....)
 
Note:  Gallup's RV has Kerry Leading by 2.
 
The Washington Post seemed to sum it all up Sunday,
GOTV folks.  That's what its going to be all about. 
 
We'll see whose doing bong hits and watching Fraggle Rock on Wednesday.
RW
Monday, November 01, 2004 8:19:17 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

To everyone who plans to vote on Tuesday, please be patient.  High voter turnout and limited staffing at the polls means that there will be long lines on Election Day.  Do not be deterred.  If you are in line before the polls close, then by law you must be permitted to vote.  Do not let anyone tell you otherwise.  Election Day is not like last call at a bar.  If your polling place has to stay open until well past midnight to accommodate those who are in line before closing time, then by law it is required to stay open.  Do not be deterred by the networks calling your state for either candidate.  No matter who is declared the winner in your state, stay in line and vote.  Remember Florida in 2000!

Click here to access your Voter Bill of Rights

Four years ago, Bush won the state of Missouri by a slight margin.  But voters by the thousands were turned away in the late hours at the polls in St. Louis and Kansas City, in districts with heavy support for Al Gore.  Many voters were African Americans who rushed to the polls after work and had been waiting in line for hours when they were told to go home.  Most went home without questioning the poll workers.  These voters were disenfranchised; by law they should have been permitted to vote, and their votes should have been counted.  I use Missouri in 2000 as an example, but this tactic is widely used by GOP poll workers to turn away voters in Democratic strongholds.  Do not let it happen to you, or to anyone you know.  Get the word out.

Again, please be patient.  Expect long lines.  Bring a book, a Gameboy, some music to pass the time.  Do not be deterred.  You only get to vote in a Presidential election once every four years, and never in our lifetimes has an election been so important.  Voting is not like getting movie tickets, so it shouldn't be treated as such.  There is no later screening.  Long lines are no excuse for choosing not to participate in our democracy.  Trust me, the GOP faithful will wait in line, and their votes will be counted.  If anything, take satisfaction in knowing that by choosing to wait in line, you are pissing off a redneck who knows his vote for Bush will be neutralized.

Be resolute on Tuesday, and you will ensure a victory for Kerry.

GH
Monday, November 01, 2004 4:03:44 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Sunday, October 31, 2004

Kerry may have luck on his side.  First, his beloved Boston Red Sox capped off the most remarkable of comebacks and won their first World Series in 86 years.  Now, the Washington Redskins on Halloween may have ensured a Kerry victory, at least if you're superstitious.

As a life-long Redskins fan, this fall brought the hope that the Burgundy and Gold would return to glory with O Captain, my Captain Joe Gibbs at the helm.  But the game appears to have passed by the Bible thumpin', Bush rootin', NASCAR tootin' coach.  The Washington Redskins stumbled yet again today, falling to the equally inept Green Bay Packers 28-14. 

If a coincidental but statistically improbable trend continues, Kerry supporters have reason to celebrate.  The results of the last game played at home by the Redskins before the U.S. presidential elections has accurately foretold the winner of the last sixteen of those political contests, going all the way back to 1940.  If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that occupies the White House continues to hold it.  If the 'Skins lose that last home game, the challenging party's candidate unseats the incumbent president.  Mr. President, be prepared to clean out your desk in January.

Here is the history worthy of Robert Ripley and Paul Harvey:

On October 30, 2000, the Washington Redskins blew a Monday night game at home to the Tennessee Titans, 27-21, presaging a loss for the incumbent Democratic party.  Democrats have long blamed Jeb Bush, Katherine Harris, hanging chads, and the U.S. Supreme Court for vaulting Bush to the White House.  But Gore could just as easily blame the boys in burgundy and gold.

On October 27, 1996, the Washington Redskins whipped the Indianapolis Colts at home, 31-16, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Sure enough the virile President Bill Clinton took the impotent Senator Bob Dole to the woodshed in November.

On November 1, 1992, the Washington Redskins lost to the New York Giants at home, 24-7, predicting a similar loss for the incumbent Republicans.  Two days later, Republican President George H. W. Bush lost his re-election bid to Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas.  Republicans can rest assured it had nothing to do with Ross Perot or the economy, stupid.    

On November 6, 1988, the Washington Redskins squeaked by the New Orleans Saints at home, 27-24, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. As President Ronald Reagan had already been elected twice, the 1988 election matched a sitting Vice-President, Republican George H. W. Bush, against a challenger, Democratic Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts. True to form, Vice-President Bush won.  Democrats can rest assured it had nothing to do with Willie Horton, Kitty Dukakis, or that damn picture of the diminutive Governor in the tank. 

On November 5, 1984, the Washington Redskins beat the Atlanta Falcons in a Monday night home game, 27-14, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. The next day, President Reagan handily defeated former Vice-President and Senator Walter F. Mondale of Minnesota, winning re-election with a landslide.

On November 2, 1980, the Washington Redskins were destroyed at home by the Minnesota Vikings, 39-14, predicting a loss for the incumbent Democrats.  President Jimmy Carter failed in his re-election bid, losing to his Republican opponent, former California governor Ronald Reagan.

On October 31, 1976, the Washington Redskins were crushed by rival Dallas in a Halloween Day home game, losing 20-7 and predicting a loss for the incumbent Republicans and President Ford. Two days later, Democratic Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia unseated Ford, who had a chronic falling problem due to an old football injury.

On October 22, 1972, the Washington Redskins beat their rival, the Dallas Cowboys, 24-20, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. Sure enough, in the midst of the Watergate Investigation, the 1972 election resulted in the electoral vote landslide re-election of President Richard Nixon over the Democratic nominee, Senator George McGovern of South Dakota

On October 27, 1968, the Washington Redskins lost a close game to the New York Giants, 13-10, predicting a loss for the incumbent Democrats. Since President Lyndon B. Johnson had announced several months earlier that he would not seek another term as president, the 1968 election was a contest between sitting Vice-President Hubert Humphrey and a former Vice-President, Republican Richard Nixon. In a mirror of the Redskins game, Tricky Dick prevailed in a close contest.  A few years later, Nixon drew up a trick play for Redskins Coach George Allen.  When Allen ran Nixon's reverse, the Redskins lost 13 yards. 

On October 25, 1964, the Redskins edged RW's beloved Chicago Bears, 27-20, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. As predicted, President Lyndon Johnson won a landslide victory over Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona.

On October 30, 1960, the Redskins were trounced at home by the Cleveland Browns, 31-10, predicting a loss for the incumbent Republicans. President Dwight D. Eisenhower had already served two terms, so Vice-President Richard Nixon took up the Republican mantle against Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts in the 1960 presidential election. Like the Redskins, the Republicans lost.  Republicans can rest assured it had nothing to do with Sam Giancana's crime family.

On October 21, 1956, the Redskins prevailed over the Cleveland Browns at home, 20-9, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. And, for the second straight election, Eisenhower beat Stevenson.

On November 2, 1952, the Washington Redskins lost a nail-biter to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, 24-23, predicting a similar loss for the incumbent Democrats. President Harry S. Truman declined to run for re-election, leaving the field open for former Illinois governor and egghead Adlai Stevenson to stand against the Republican candidate, General Dwight D. Eisenhower.  The American people liked Ike more than the smart guy.

On Halloween Day, 1948, the Washington Redskins walloped the Boston Yanks (baseball fans can appreciate the irony of the team name) at home, 59-21, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Two days later, the original comeback kid, President Harry S. Truman, defeated his Republican challenger, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New YorkGallup had predicted a comfortable win for Dewey.  Instead of going out of business, Gallup funneled cash to the GOP and is still making bad predictions today.

On November 5, 1944, the Washington Redskins edged the Cleveland Rams at home, 14-10, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. And win the Democrats did, as FDR secured an unprecedented fourth term by defeating the Republican nominee, Thomas Dewey.  Ah, those were the days. 

On November 3, 1940, the Washington Redskins pummeled the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, 37-10, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats.  Likewise, Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt became the first (and only) three-term president as he thrashed Republican challenger and candidate with the all-time silliest name Wendell Willkie of New York (a former Democrat who had never been elected dog catcher) on November 5, 1940.

1936?  The Washington Redskins were still in Boston.  But the Boston team won at Fenway Park and the incumbent Democrats won, as FDR beat a man named Alf.

GH
Monday, November 01, 2004 2:56:06 AM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Saturday, October 30, 2004

White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett spoke to reporters at a Bush rally on Kerry's response to the bin Laden tape.  From AFP

Dan Bartlett said that the tape should not affect the way Bush campaigns but that Kerry should have marked a 12-hour truce.

"You would think that there would be a, maybe, 12 hours to let the American absorb what has just happened today," he said.

Prodded on why, if the tape ought not to affect the campaign, Kerry should have stopped criticizing the president, Bartlett revised his statement, saying that the problem was that Kerry's attack had been "discredited."

Former Republican President Abraham Lincoln responded on July 27, 1848:

But the distinction between the cause of the President in beginning the war, and the cause of the country after it was begun, is a distinction which you cannot perceive.  To you, the President, and the country seem to be all one.  You are interested to see no distinction between them; and I venture to suggest that possibly your interest blinds you a little.

Now who is politicizing the bin Laden tape?

RW
Sunday, October 31, 2004 3:53:46 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

It's an October surprise, but not exactly what Bush had in mind.  Osama's back, alive and well, and he's thumbing his nose at us.  He even went so far as to chastise Bush for reading My Pet Goat.  Ouch.  The GOP will spin, spin, spin.  Look for Dick Cheney to say a vote for Kerry is a vote for the terrorists.  Meanwhile, Bush wants another $70 billion to fight the war in Iraq.

The timing of this message couldn't make Osama bin Laden's motive clearer.  He wants Bush to win the election.  There is no reason to doubt that wherever Osama is, he is receiving accounts from the U.S. media.  His reference to Fahrenheit 9-11 gives ample proof of this.  Therefore, there is little doubt that he is aware that polls show that voters trust Bush over Kerry to handle the war on terror.  All of the pundits say that if voters are thinking about terrorism, rather than the war in Iraq, in the voting booth, that's good for Bush.  Evidently Osama agrees.

Why would Osama want Bush elected?  Because Bush is a known commodity; Kerry is the wild card.  Moreover, Bush has continually played right into Osama's hands.  By choosing to invade Iraq, and using lies to justify the invasion, Bush inflamed Muslims in the Middle East.  By not sending enough troops, Bush allowed terrorists to cross the borders and set up base in Iraq.  By failing to secure munitions scattered throughout the country, Bush permitted insurgents to seize weapons.  The bombings, kidnappings, and beheadings  in Iraq have given terrorists reason to celebrate.  All in all, Bush's policies have inspired legions of young Muslims to take up arms and give their lives to Osama's cause.  Bush has been good for Osama's business.

How can Kerry benefit from this October surprise?  By remaining strong and resolute.  He should say that it infuriates him that Osama is still on the loose, but that he will destroy Osama when he is President.  He should cease referring to Bush's failure at Tora Bora; he's hammered that point home.  Rather, he should continue to express his anger that the man responsible for nearly 3,000 murders is still on the loose, three years after the tragedy, and yet we are in a quagmire in Iraq.  People will connect the dots and be reminded that Bush's mission has not been accomplished, and it's time to elect someone who will get the job done.  

Update 6:07 PM: I just saw Bush give a brief prepared statement in response to Osama in Toledo, Ohio. 

Earlier today I was informed of the tape that is now being analyzed by America's intelligence community. Let me make this very clear: Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this.

I also want to say to the American people that we're at war with these terrorists and I am confident that we will prevail.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

He looked like hell.  He appeared exhausted and a bit rattled, and he slumped while he spoke at a podium.  He took no questions from the press, but hightailed it to Air Force One.  He probably is still shaken from the confetti shower he received in New Hampshire.

Then I saw Kerry, who appears to be gaining energy by the day (see his response off the cuff in Florida in the post below).

GH
Saturday, October 30, 2004 5:39:11 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [4]  |  Trackback
 Friday, October 29, 2004

I'm really looking forward to putting a bullet in his head.

Update 6:15 PM: What Kerry Did Say

In response to this tape from Osama bin Laden, let me make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes. Period.

Obviously the movers and shakers read this blog.

 

RW
Saturday, October 30, 2004 2:47:57 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Wow.  Pentagon spokesman Larry DiRita trotted out  Maj. Pearson of the 3rd Infantry Division, who claimed that he destroyed some explosives at Al Qaa Qa. 

Was it under seal?  No. 

Was it the RMX or HDX.  Don't know.

These people, what are they doing?  They should have taken the hit on Monday and moved on.  Instead they spent the last five days trying to spin it and changed stories so many times that even they can't keep up with it.  Are they professionals?

I believe Bon Scott put it best:

Shot down in flames
Shot down in flames
Ain't it a shame
To be shot down in flames

Update 2:30 PM Friday: From the transcript

QUESTION: Major Pearson, just to remove any confusion about what you're telling us, can you tell us definitively that any of the materiel that you or your unit destroyed was among the 300-plus tons of the high explosives under IAEA seal? Can you tell us that definitively?

PEARSON: I can tell you that I recovered captured enemy ammunition from Objective Elms and I moved that approximately 200 to 250 tons of ammunition to the captured ammunition holding area at Dogwood, which I managed.

QUESTION: Wait a second, can he tell us whether that was the materiel -- the 300 plus tons that were under IAEA seal? Can you tell us that that was the same materiel? Are we talking about the same materiel?

DI RITA: You don't know, sir? [Bet the video gets good here]

PEARSON: I don't know. I don't have that information.

DI RITA: And let me help you with that.

I think you've helped enough, Larry.  In fact, I don't think you'll be helping for too much longer.

 

RW
Friday, October 29, 2004 10:01:58 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [4]  |  Trackback

World Series star and Yankee killer Curt Schilling canceled a scheduled campaign appearance with President Bush on Friday

On Thursday, Schilling appeared on NBC's Today Show and endorsed Bush.  However, Schilling did an about-face on Friday.  In a message posted on fan website Boston Dirt Dogs, Schilling blamed his ailing ankle for not being able to attend the Bush rally.  Then he apologized for endorsing Bush on the Today Show.  “While I'm a Bush supporter, and I did vote for him with an absentee ballot, speaking as I did the other day was wrong,” Schilling stated in his e-mail.  “While I hope to see him re-elected, it's not my place, nor the time for me to offer up my political opinions unsolicited.”

On Thursday, Schilling went to Disney World as he promised in the World Series ad, where he accepted the Bush campaign's invitation to join the President in New Hampshire.  People lined the streets of Manchester and Portsmouth today, anticipating Schilling's arrival.  Most said they were more excited to see Schilling than the President, including Republican Congressman and longtime Red Sox fan Jeb Bradley.  Kids clutched baseballs and cards in hopes of autographs from the Red Sox ace.    

Schilling's snub comes as the latest in a series of blows to Bush's struggling campaign.  Watch for people in the Granite State to turn away in droves once news of Schilling's cancellation reaches them.

While Schilling may have cited doctor's orders for snubbing Bush, we baseball fans know the real reason.  It's the same reason Schilling accepted a trade to the Red Sox from the woeful Arizona Diamondbacks.  Schilling does not want to associate with losers.


GH
Friday, October 29, 2004 9:41:00 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback

The following flyer is being distributed in African American neighborhoods in Milwaukee.  Jim Crow is alive and well.  Every assertion on this paper is false, of course. 

If this pisses you off, e-mail all the major news networks listed below.  Hat tip: Daily Kos.

http://www.cnn.com/feedback/forms/form1.html?39

Nightly@NBC.com

NETAUDR@abc.com

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/feedback/fb_news_form.shtml

Meanwhile, in Madison over 80,000 turned out for a Kerry rally, with Bruce Springsteen as the opening act.  Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Jim Crow wing of the GOP.  No Photoshop trickery here.

The GOP may succeed in disenfranchising some, but they cannot disenfranchise all.  The Democrats have scoreboard in Wisconsin.

GH
Friday, October 29, 2004 12:12:15 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [4]  |  Trackback

Moe Wanchuk is excited about the Charleston Cheifs moving to Florida. 

Why?  Because of all those Goregous Voters in FLA! (Reg. Requried)

A Zogby poll of Miami-Dade county shows that if the election were held today, John F. Kerry will win the county by at least 50,000 votes.  The upper limit of the projection is a 90,000-100,000 vote margin.  Bush literally cannot win the state if this holds.  Get ready for the big one folks because its going to be oh so big.  Oh so big.

 

RW
Friday, October 29, 2004 9:53:30 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

Said George Bush in Ohio today:

“But Americans have learned that even when you disagree with me, at least you know what I believe and where I stand.”

We sure do, Mr. President.

We knew your stance on civil liberties and affirmative action when you appointed John Ashcroft as your top cop and urged his office to fight University of Michigan's admissions policy.  We knew your stance when you signed the Patriot Act into law, and by all of the hack judges you appointed to the federal bench.  We knew your stance when you locked up citizens and threw away the Constitution.   

We knew your stance on science when you emasculated embryonic stem cell research.

We knew your stance on protecting the environment from your decisons to snub the Kyoto Treaty and strip away the regulations of polluters, appointing their executives to run the EPA.

We knew your stance on energy policy when you had the industry draft it.

We knew your stance on education when you strangled schools with No Child Left Behind without adequate funding, and pushed “faith-based” initiatives.

We knew your stance on fiscal policy: record budget deficits caused by supply-side tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, and scraps to the middle class and poor.

We knew what you meant by being a compassionate conservative when you pushed a Gay Marriage Amendment, demolished Head Start and school lunches, and joked about weapons of mass destruction after 450 American soldiers had been killed in Iraq.

We know your stance on Social Security and Medicare by your urging for privatization while simultaneously draining the funds to pay for it.

We know your stance on war: every President needs one.  But Afghanistan was too much like Panama for your taste, so you took on the big one your father started.

We know your stance on national security: you opposed the Department of Homeland Security, you opposed the 9-11 Commission, and you have failed to adequately fund antiterrorism measures.

We know your stance on fighting terrorists: letting Osama bin Laden off the hook, getting them really pissed at us by waging a futile and unnecessary war, and thereby ensuring that there will be a thousand Osamas waiting to take his place.

We know your stance on foreign policy, and regretfully, the world knows your stance too.

We know your stance on secrecy by your lack of press conferences, your ceaseless attempts to cover up bad news, and your rule of silencing all dissenters.

We know where you stand on reality, and somewhere Orwell is saying, “See, I told you so.”

We know where you stand on just about everything, Mr. President.  And we disagree with you to the very core.

GH
Friday, October 29, 2004 8:39:46 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

Intelligence experts at the Iron Mouth have determined that the man purporting to be a member of Al Qaeda in a videotape broadcast by ABC News is none other than actor and former Hollywood Squares regular Jim J. Bullock.

 

I suppose Matt Drudge is delirious - probably playing with his siren again.  Naturally, the Bush campaign has nothing to do with the timing of its release.  Anything to divert attention from the Al Qaqaa fiasco must come as a welcome relief for the beaten up Bush-Cheney team.  Nothing like a good dose of in-your-face fear to make people forget about miscues, lies, and cover-ups.

GH
Friday, October 29, 2004 6:07:09 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [3]  |  Trackback
 Thursday, October 28, 2004

Kudos to RW for posting the doctored Bush campaign ad.  Now, thanks to power of the Internet, Mark McKinnon, head of the Bush advertising team, has admitted to technical hijinx.

On Bush's official campaign “blog,“ his team has proudly assembled a series of e-mails from people praising the aptly titled “Whatever It Takes“ ad.

Junann Calmes of Colorado Springs: I actually felt began to cry during the first viewing. It shows him as the human he is and shows the terrible choices he has had to make---it also shows that he accepts these choices and is firmly resolved to protect every American. I work in the marketing field and this ad sums up President Bush and who he is. Wow, what an ad!

Myra Land: That was the most moving message I have ever seen. It brought me to tears. I have forwarded it to two family members, whom I'm sure will share... I have spoken to some Democrats and I have managed to change their minds by just presenting the facts, and telling them to remember 9/11 -- and that the War on Terror can not be fought in the U.S.

Josh Ebert from Brooklyn, NY: This ad is absolutely brilliant. This is the ad that will push the President over the finish line to victory. It should be played in all states especially the swing states.

I just sent an e-mail to the Bush-Cheney campaign.  It is a little different in tone.  I doubt it will appear on the Bush “blog.“  My message follows:

It is a regretful day in our nation when the President of the United States would stoop so low as to doctor a campaign ad to bolster his appeal.  It is no consolation that Mr. Mark McKinnon has chosen to fall on his sword; after all, the President proudly states that he approved the ad.  The title of the ad couldn't be more tragically fitting: "Whatever It Takes."

I am tired of the President capitalizing on the tragedy of 9-11 and the sacrifices of our troops.  The act of digitally replicating the faces of real soldiers in effect dehumanizes them.  It serves a painful reminder that our President, in spite of what he says in the ad, does not consider the men and women in our military as individuals, but as expendable objects to be manipulated as he sees fit.

Shame on him.

 

Update 7:17 PM: Kerry campaign responds, demands Bush to pull ad.

Update 8:22 PM: Despite promises to recut the ad, the Bush campaign continues to play the doctored version.

GH
Friday, October 29, 2004 3:21:50 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback

Wow, they really are taking on water over there at B/C '04 today.  Halliburton now the focus a of criminal probe involving the Iraq contracts.  As the Replacements would say: “Anywhere's Better Than Here.”

RW
Friday, October 29, 2004 2:50:04 AM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [2]  |  Trackback

Dick Cheney held his last supper in Wisconsin last night.  

Update 4:40 PM: The noose tightens.

Update 8:30 PM: After ABC News spills the beans, Cheney flip-flops.  What's a few tons of HMX here or there? 

Update 11:52 PM: One of you will betray me: Bunnatine Greenhouse for whistle-blower of the year.