The conventional wisdom about this election is that Bush will avoid major combat in Iraq until after the election in order to mute criticism of the disaster there. However, it is very possible that the Bush Administration, for reasons of political expediency, will attack Fallujah earlier. Such an attack would make it difficult for Sen. Kerry to attack his Iraq policy, demonstrate that Bush is a strong leader, and undercut one of Bush's greatest weaknesses in the Iraq war, his handover of almost all of Western Iraq to Sunni extremists. Furthermore, such a move would be in line with Bush's reputation as a political gambler.
Such an interpretation seems to be backed up by evidence of U.S. action in the Fallujah area. On Sunday, two U.S. soldiers were killed at a logistics base on the western outskirts of Baghdad. Yesterday, seven U.S. Marines were killed in a suicide bombing attack near Fallujah. All of this activity may presage an early move on Fallujah.
Why would Bush take such a risk? Because the payoff would be great. A successful Fallujah operation would mute Kerry's criticism of Bush's Iraq mess. Remember that during the month of August, Kerry's numbers slipped during fighting in Najaf. Furthermore, any attacks on Bush's war leadership during an offensive could make Kerry look like a political opportunist, seeking advantage in the polls at the expense of the boys overseas. Kerry's hands would thus be tied.
Furthermore, Fallujah is the biggest blot on Bush's war record. The President told the nation that the Iraq Governing Council was going to communicate “with the insurgents to ensure an orderly turnover of that city” and insist that “those who killed and mutilated four American contract workers be handed over for trial and punishment.” Yet these things never happened. The killers of the contract workers were never brought to justice and Fallujah, like Ramadi and most of Western Iraq, remains in the hands of insurgents.
Furthermore, it might do much to strengthen the terror-Iraq linkage. Zarqawi, the terrorist responsible for many of the worst acts of terror in Iraq, seems to have taken up residence there. Killing or capturing him might make the dubious terrorism-Iraq link seem stronger in the minds of wavering Americans.
Finally, Bush is a gambler. Indeed, the entire Iraq invasion was a gamble--based on the flawed premise that an overwhelming conventional victory in Iraq would result in the Arab world moving away from the support of anti-U.S. elements in their midst. An attack on Fallujah before the election would be in keeping with known Bush behavior.
Although such a strategy is not without risks, a clean up of the Fallujah mess might provide the President with a boost. Bush could prove his war credentials by launching an offensive, and Kerry could not attack him for it.
The solution for Kerry is simple. The drumbeat must advance on economic issues first, Iraq second. The first is the area where he will reach the undecideds and leaners and the second is an area where the base is already convinced.