Speculation has been rampant about just how deep Patrick Fitzgerald is going to go in any potential consipracy indictments.  Many are hoping that he will go deep into the back story of the Administration's deeply flawed presentation of its case for the Iraq war. 

But questions about Fitzgerald's mandate to reach into these questions remain.  In the analysis below, I would like to suggest that Fitzgerald's ability to look into these questions depends very much on the nature of the conspiracy he alleges occured.

First, let's look at the mandate itself:

On December 30, 2003, Acting Attorney General James B. Comey gave Fitzgerald the authority to investigate the following:

By the authority vested in the Attorney General by law, including 28 U. S .C. §§ 509, 510, and 515, and in my capacity as Acting Attorney General pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 508, I hereby delegate to you all the authority of the Attorney General with respect to the Department's investigation into the alleged unauthorized disclosure of a CIA employee's identity, and I direct you to exercise that authority as Special Counsel independent of the supervision or control of any officer of the Department.

This was either clarified or expanded by a letter from James B. Comey on February 6, 2005:

At your request, I am writing to clarify that my December 30, 2003, delegation to you of "all the authority of the Attorney General with respect to the Department's investigation into the alleged unauthorized disclosure of a CIA employee's identity" is plenary and includes the authority to investigate and prosecute violations of any federal criminal laws related to the underlying alleged unauthorized disclosure, as well as federal crimes committed in the course of, and with intent to interfere with, your investigation, such as perjury, obstruction of justice, destruction of evidence, and intimidation of witnesses; to conduct appeals arising out of the matter being investigated and/or prosecuted; and to pursue administrative remedies and civil sanctions (such as civil contempt) that are within the Attorney General's authority to impose or pursue. Further, my conferral on you of the title of "Special Counsel" in this matter should not be misunderstood to suggest that your position and authorities are defined and limited by 28 CFR Part 600.

Thus he can "investigate and prosecute violations of any federal criminal laws related to the underlying unathorized disclosure."  A wide mandate.  The question is, how does this relate to the pre-war intelligence?

Readers who have been following our coverage of the CIA Leak case (the name that has finally stuck), knows that we have advanced a different theory of the reason for the Plame disclosures than has been previously discussed.  We think that the White House Iraq Group innacurately said that Plame sent her husband to Niger so that they could distance themselves from their inquiries about the Niger allegations.  Anyone pulling on that thread would ask the logical question--did Cheney and the rest of the White House Iraq Group learn of Wilson's report that there was no evidence that the Niger allegations were true?  If Cheney did know the Niger story was a hoax, the White House Iraq Group's knowing use of false intelligence would rank up there with the greatest poltical crimes of all time.

If this is what happened, the disclosure of Plame's name is actually a small part of a larger conspiracy.  Were that the case, it is easy to see how Fitzgerald could expand his investigation to cover every part of the pre-war intelligence efforts.  Time will tell if this is what has happened.