1.         Tactical Dimension: A Public Narrative—Kerry Lied, Bush Smears

In the short term, Kerry has been hurt by the SBVT ads.  The lies of Rove & Co. have struck a glancing blow against his leadership credentials.  The Bush team has succeeded in moving the focus of the news off Bush and onto Kerry for the first time in many months.  Polling conducted before the Kerry counter-attack showed Bush eating into Kerry’s lead.  Bush has finally succeeded in moving the needle in his direction.

Bush also sought to pull out the old bully’s trick of provoking a response and then trying to act cool when the inevitable response comes.  Although the Kerry camp did play into Rove’s hands by complaining to the FEC, (“Mom! he’s over on my side of the car seat!”), and by staging the Max Cleland visit to Crawford, there is little worry the electorate will see the generally stolid Kerry as unbalanced.

But Kerry’s response also showed the Democrat’s determination to bring forth a new meme: Bush is a smear artiste.  This will have the longest-lasting effect of any aspect of the SBVT ads.

An added dimension was the “bitch slap” meme brought out by Josh Marshall.  The Kerry camp used the SBVT episode as a springboard to establish the democratic nominee’s cojones credentials. View Josh's Post here

Adding up the score indicates that Kerry lost 2 points to Bush’s one.  Kerry’s war credentials took a slight hit that may or may not have lasting impact in the minds of Americans, but SBVT’s ads have been clearly linked to the Bush campaign in the minds of a plurality of voters.  View the poll here (Warning Adobe requried).  This is the most important aspect of the Kerry attempt to turn the tables on the SBVT attacks.

2.         The Strategic Dimension: The Law of Diminishing Returns

But two steps forward, one step back is not enough for Bush.  With the right track/wrong track numbers showing the majority of the country believing that the country is on the wrong track, View Current Right/Track Wrong-Track Polling, the Bush Team must succeed in moving the needle much farther in his favor and fast.  These numbers are critical for an incumbent president and without serious movement, they spell doom in big letters for the President.  The Bush team must create a series of SBVT’s to bring Kerry down to where Bush is now. 

But the Kerry Camp’s response to SBVT made it highly unlikely that the Republicans will be able to unleash a series of more attack ads like this one.  Linking Bush to “smear” attacks makes new attacks much less likely. 

In short, Kerry’s team has sent Bush a strong message:  Your attacks will come at a price.  As the press has finally decided that its job is to report facts and not to allow lies to pose as opinions worthy of airing, the SBVT allegations have fallen apart.  The electorate and the press are unlikely to give another round of sleaze a second glance.  Bush will be forced to fight the election on grounds he would rather not: the actual state of the country.