Looking at what's happening in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon its hard to figure out why things have spun out of control so quickly. One of the more interesting theories offered as to whyHezbollah recently kidnapped a pair of Israeli soldiers (besides the fact that they've done so numerous time in the past to negotiate prisoner releases) is the possibility that Iran is using its influence to strike Israel and mess up U.S. Middle East policy at a time when the Bush Administration is trying to put maximum pressure on Teheran. That means what is being described as a local mess doesn't merely have "regional implications" but is actually a big regional mess. Its hard to say to what extent that is true, and of course Mr. Bush quickly blamed Syria for the mess, but it did remind me of an interview with former CIA agent and Middle East hand Robert Baer for a Frontline special about Iran's support of terrorism. The interview is interesting not merely because Baer explains Iran's relationship with Hezbollah and other groups, but also in the way he lays out a more nuanced (ie. complicated) picture of Hezbollah, Middle East politics and the continued inability of both the U.S. and Iran to come to terms with one another in any meaningful diplomatic way. I don't know if it explains rockets falling on Haifa or Beirut International Airport being repeatedly bombed by Israeli jets, but it is a start.
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